NFL Picks - Super Bowl Edition

We tried to lay low after the perfect round we had during Championship Weekend. That's right, let that settle in for a moment......perfect. Four and oh, thanks to Troy Polamolu's pick six late in the 4th, whihc brings the post-season mark to 12-8.

As promised, we will be selecting not only the game versus the points as well as the over/under, but a selection of prop bets as well in a misguided attempt to bring the season record above the .500 mark. Let's get to it...

First of all, it is refreshing to see a team that has never made it to the game play in the Super Bowl. Cardinal fans, wherever you are, rejoice and enjoy this moment. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is gunning for the a record sixth Super Bowl title, so this is all pretty much old hat for the players and fans in the Steel City.

So what happens Sunday then? The Steeler defense is as formidable a group the Cards have seen all season. Dick LeBeau's group simply cannot be run against, which might not matter since Arizona seems to have littl einterest in runngin the ball anyway. On the flip side, Pittsburgh's offense hasn't really been lighting it up, but could see some success against a Cardinal defense which has suddenly become a swarming bunch of ball hawks. The key could very well be how the "off" units (Pitt's Offense, 'Zona's Defense) perform. Let's look at it from that angle:

Steelers on offense - Big Ben is as tough as they come, and he has that uncanny, immeasurable ability to create something out of nothing, like he did on the long TD toss to Santonio Holmes against the Ravens. He also, however, tends to make some head scratching plays at times. He will have to keep those in his pocket on Sunday night. A less than 100% Hines Ward is still better than nothing at all, but the degree of his effectivemess will go a long way toward determining how successful these guys will be. The running game, normally a Steeler hallamrk, has been as spotty as ever and it's hard to predict what it can provide.

Cardinals on Defense - Eleven turnovers in three playoff games is a staggering total, and is an easy indicator when determining why this team has not only won its way here, but how. Since turnovers are often impossible to predict from game to game, we can't assume the trend will continue. Should the turnovers not come, this unit must force a few three and outs and avoid allowing long drives in the humid Florida night.

The pick:
All things seems to point to the Steelers: the experience, the better defense, the chance to make history. All solid reasons, but we just can't shake one big thing working against them - Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona's coach. As a former Steeler assistant, he kjows the Pittsburgh personnel, has spent countless hours practicing against Dick LeBeau's schemes, and has no doubt seen just about every look LeBeau can give. Toss in the crazy mojo surrounding Kurt Warner, the best ffnsive player on the field in Larry Fitzgerald, and we're going to go ahead and grab the Cardinals to not only cover, but win outright.

Cardinals (+7)
OVER 46.5
Cardinals 27 Steelers 20


On to the Prop Bets!

Since many of these bets involve multiple options (with accompanying odds), we're going to stick with only those involving two choices.

Coin Toss: Tails
Winner of Coin Toss: Steelers
How Many Times will NBC show Brenda Warner during the game: Over 2.5
Which QB will John Madden mention using his full name after kickoff: Ben Roethlisberger
First Score: Touchdown
First to score: Cardinals
Number of songs sung by Bruce Springsteen: Over 3.5
Jersey Number of player to score first TD: Under 38

Enjoy the game everybody.

The Chin To KC?

An interesting blog post from Adam Schefter on nfl.com indicates that Bill Cowher could be the next coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, but not until 2010, based on things said by Boomer Esiason on his WFAN radio show Friday morning. While there is no hard data to back this up, Schefter does list a few points which make sense regarding the former Steelers leader:

• Boomer works with Cowher, and is familiar with his thinking.
• Cowher worked in KC as an assistant to Marty Schottenheimer prior to taking the Steeler job.
• According to Boomer, new Chief GM Scott Pioli is good friends with Cowher.
• The pool of desired coaches Pioli would have considered (Josh Macdaniels, for one) seems to have dried up.

While most insiders believe incumbent head coach Herm Edwards is a dead man walking, we can see him sticking around at least for one year while the rebuilding process kicks in. Herm is still well liked by his players, and the young guys seem to respond to him. There's also the little matter of the last year of his contract, which will pay him $4 million, and we're sure KC would like to have him earn that dough.

Either way, we Chief fans are looking forward to the Pioli Era.

NFL Picks - Conference Championships

Where was last week's picks column, you're asking yourself? Never posted it, and it's a shame, because we had some good stuff planned. Stuff which turned to crap by around 4:30 on Sunday afternoon (Thanks Eli!).

Despite the lack of a posted picks column, we still had them done, and the results were a rather predictable 3-5 (1-3 on the games, 2-2 on the over/unders). Only the Steelers managed to come through and win at home, which up until this season was pretty much a lock during the divisional round.

So, what now? How can we possibly predict the outcomes of these rather unlikely matchups? More importantly, how can we get back to a 50% success rate with only 6 remaining things from which to pick? Simple - the Super Bowl pick will also involve all the Prop Bets (coin toss, first TD, first FG, etc.), which could result in a spectacular failure, but will be fun nontheless. On to the games at hand.

ARIZONA (+4) over Philadelphia
OVER 47

We understand how home field advantage has taken a bit of a beating this season, but if it does exist, the Cardinlas are a pretty solid example, going 7-2. It's notable how the home crowd responded during the opening round game against Atlanta, though that was against a batch of playoff newbies not accustomed to such things. This Eagle team has no issues travelling, haing already won twice in two pretty hostile environments (Minny and the Meadowlands). The line has been steadily moving in Philly's favor all week, creeping up to 4, and we will not hesitate to grab the points.

Nothing about the Eagles offense has impressed thus far. Think about it, the one screen pass Westbrook busted against the Vikes was pretty much the only big play they've pulled off in two games. What has them here is the defense, and we expect Jim Johnosn to have some new looks ready to throw at Kurt Warner. The X factor is Warner's ability to hang on to the ball, which he can often have issues doing. Keep an eye on Asante Samuel, who loves to go for the big play and jumps routes all the time - miscalcualting that here against the physical receiving corps of Boldin and Fitzgerald could result in big gainers for the Redbirds.

Throw out the Turkey Day debacle - Arizona had to travel cross country on a short week, while the Eagles stayed home with a pissed off Donovan McNabb ready to prove Andy Reid wrong for benching him three days earlier. Though that game jump started Philly's playoff push, it bears no relevance here other than to add more fuel to the Cardinal "nobody repects us" fire.

The pick: we like the Cardinals to continue the improbable ride, and prepare ourselves for 2 weeks of feel good stories about Kurt Warner.

Cardinals 27 Eagles 23

PITTSBURGH (-6) over Baltimore
OVER 34

Beating a team three times in one year can often be a chore, but the feeling here is that Pittsburgh is one team the Ravens are incapable of intimidating. Big Ben seems to get knocked around every week, but opicks himself up and manages to make just enough plays. throw in the fact that the Steelers offensive line finally showed signs of playing like a real cohesive unit last week, and that spells trouble for the Ravens. Joe Flacco has been a great story, and to call him a rookie seems improper by now - he's a "first year player" who has shown himself to be unflappable in big spots. He manages to make at least one big throw each week and will likely do so here as well.

Two significant injuries for Baltimore, Suggs and Rolle, will have an impact as well. A resurgent Steeler ground game will help chew up the clock and wear down the resilient defense. We see the Steelers gettign a lead and forcing Baltimore out of their game, which could make the game a bit more high scoring than most expect.

The pick: Pittsburgh returns to the Super Bowl in a game that might be closer than the final score indicates.

Steelers 23 Ravens 13

Last Week: 3-5
Playoff Totals: 8-8

Season Overall: 131-140 (48.3%)

NFL Picks - Wild Card Weekend Edition

Back to the picks after a brief, near suicidal hiatus. This has been an awful year for us, and we now look to the post season as the last chance for some kind of redemption. Toward that end, we'll be playing the over/unders as well as the point spreads from here on out. Let's get this underway with the Saturday games:

SATURDAY
Atlanta (-2.5) over ARIZONA
OVER 50.5
Love the way the Dirty Birds can run the ball, and by doing so keep the potent aerial show of Kurt Warner and Co. off the field. Also, have to like the Atlanta pass rush to put some big time heat on the immobile Warner all afternoon. Look for the Cards to post a late run to make it interesting
before the Falcons move on.

Falcons 27 Cardinals 24

Indianapolis (-1/2) over SAN DIEGO
UNDER 50
Newly crowned MVP Peyton Manning leads the red hot Colts into SD against a Charger group which has absolutely nothing to lose. Normally, a dangerous team playing at home would be a slam dunk, but this team has plenty of flaws, all of which will be exposed by a Dungy defense and a patient Manning. All that, plus Norv Turner, equals a confident pick for the road team.

Colts 27 Chargers 21

SUNDAY
Baltimore over MIAMI
UNDER 37.5
Dolphins are easily the story of the year, and give off a "glad to be here" vibe. Pennington and Co. overcame numerous mistakes (dropped passes, turnovers, bad penalties) to grab the AFC East and get here, but can't afford that kind of effort against the Ravens. Look for ball hawk extraordinaire Ed Reed to be on Chad's throws all afternoon, and the Joe Flacco led Baltimore offense to score just enough to get out of here with a victory.

Ravens 19 Dolphins 10

Philadelphia (-3) over MINNESOTA
OVER 41
Wow, four road teams picked? Really? Either we're geniuses or idiots.
Love what Philly can do in this matchup, namely, have a QB who is nimble enough to elude a solid pass rush, and have a guy like Westbrook who can give even the best LB's fits. Fired up Eagle defense will give Action Jackson all kinds of trouble, allowing the City of Brotherly Love to keep it's dream of another championship alive for at least another week.

Eagles 30 Vikings 21

NFL Picks - Week 13

Late to the party, but the picks were in as of Wednesday night. A quick look at them shows that there is no way in hell these were made any later. Sigh.

THANKSGIVING
Tennessee (-11.5) over DETROIT
DALLAS (-12.5) over Seattle
Arizona (+2.5) over PHILADELPHIA

SUNDAY
BUFFALO (-6.5) over San Francisco
Baltimore (-7.5) over CINCINNATI
Indianapolis (-4.5) over CLEVELAND
GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Carolina
Miami (-7.5)over ST. LOUIS
TAMPA BAY (-4.5) over New Orleans
N.Y. Giants (-3.5) over WASHINGTON
Atlanta (+5.5) over SAN DIEGO
N.Y. JETS (-7.5) over Denver
Kansas City (+2.5) over OAKLAND
NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) over Pittsburgh
Chicago (+3.5) over MINNESOTA

MONDAY
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville

End this miserable season already!

What We Learned...NFL Edition

As the calendar turns toward Turkey Day, things begin to take shape in the National Footbal League (say it loudly and emphatically, like Ron Jaworski, who we swear must get a residual from Roger Goodell every time he says that). Early season pretenders are snapped back to reality, while those teams with talent start gettign it together and gearing up for a playoff run.

So what did we learn thus far after the near completion of Week 12?

The Jets are for a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
If you're around Jet fans, you know how much their collective stomach turns when they see a sentence like that. They rival, to a degree, Chicago Cubs fans when it comes to pessimism and gloomy doomy expectations. Strangely, we haven't heard much of that after yesterday's 31-13 whipping of previously unbeaten Tennessee. Brett Favre seems really comfortable right now, the offensive line is playing as a cohesive group, and Thomas Jones has returned to feature back/workhorse status. Not to mention the play of the defensive line (Kris Jenkins, take your bow). The AFC is still a bit wide open for the first time in several years, but to not see the Jets as the potential team to beat down the stretch is not being realistic.

The Colts are Back
Meanwhile, Indy keeps quietly stringing together victories and is poised to be the Team Nobody Wants To Play in the playoffs. While still having some issues on defense, recall that the team that won the Super Bowl was ranked last against the run before winning as well. These guys have experience and can find a way.

Dallas Isn't Going Away
As much as the rest of the league wanted them to go inot the toilet, it looks as if the 'Pokes are in for the long haul. Romo's back, and T.O. just had a big game which will keep his trap shut for awhile. This could be the NFC version of the team everyone will dread facing in Round one.

The Rams, Chiefs, Bengals and Lions simply aren't very good
The battle for the #1 pick is as hot as ever! Rams players voiced support for interim coach Jim Haslett last week, then promptly went out and were humilated by teh Bears 27-3. The Chiefs undid four weeks of apparent progress by allowing a team record 54 points to a Buffalo team which was struggling mightily. Cincinnati puts up some game efforts, but can't seem to buy a win. The Lions head into the annual Turkey Day game winless, putting an emphatic excalmation point on the suckiness that was the Matt Millen Era. (Side note: Michigan has to be one of the most depressing places to be if you're a sports fan, right? The Tigers massively underachieved, the Lions are perpetually awful, Big Blue just lost it's 9th game, oh and the whole automobile industry about to go belly up. Um, go Pistons?)

The Road to The Super Bowl will go through Jersey
The Giants continue to methodically do whatever it takes to pile up win after win. This does beg the question, how the hell did this team lose to Cleveland, and by a lot?

We Still Suck at prognosticating
Even though we're headed for a 9 win week if Nawlins can cover tonight, we're still below 50%. Only a few weeks of miracles can save this pathetic season. Luckily, we don't "gamble" with "money".

NFL Picks - Week 12

Still reeling with bitterness after the touchdown/non-touchdown last week (hey, when you're having as crappy a year as this, you need every game you can get), we forge ahead with the selections for Week 11.

THURSDAY
We had Cincinnati (+10.5) and the aforementioned Mr. CrazyHair was involved in making this one go against us as well.

SUNDAY
ATLANTA (-1.5) over Carolina
Rare home loss for Falcs last week, look for a rebound in huge one here. Something seems off about the Panthers, despite the 8-2 record.
Falcons 23 Panthers 17

Houston (+3.5) over CLEVELAND
Two disappointing teams meet - when teams of equal value clash, expect it to be close. We'll grab the points. How exactly did this team beat the Giants again?
Texans 30 Browns 27

San Francisco (+10.5) over DALLAS
Niners have adopted the crazy ass persona of Coach Singletary, and have zero to lose here. Boys are not all the way back yet despite impressive win over Redskins last week. Grab the double digit line.
Cowboys 24 49ers 20

DETROIT (+8.5) over Tampa Bay
Symbolic pairing as the winless Lions have been compared to the 76-77 Bucs. What better time for the Motor City bunch to crack the W column? Upset of the week.
Lions 20 Buccaneers 19

NY Jets (+5.5) over TENNESSEE
Game of the Week! Titans have been flirting with losing of late, while the Jets are brimming with confidence after beating Pats. Titans might still win, but this line is too high, and we like the Jets to win outright.
Jets 24 Titans 16

KANSAS CITY (+3.5) over Buffalo
Improving Chiefs finally get 2nd win against free falling Bills. Build on this one, Herm!
Chiefs 20 Bills 17

Chicago (-7.5) over ST. LOUIS
Maybe Rams are this bad. Bears have to be pissed after being embarassed at Lambeau last week, and will take out frustrations here.
Bears 31 Rams 10

New England (+1.5) over MIAMI
Easily the WTF? line of the year, judging by pre-season standards. Pats have to be motivated after getting thumped by Fish earlier this year, right? Right?
Patriots 27 Dolphins 24

JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Minnesota
Two teams we cannot figure out. Since the line is under a Field Goal, we'll hold our nose and lay it.
Jaguars 23 Vikings 20

BALTIMORE (-1.5) over Philadelphia
Ravens return to form after rude awakening last week in the Meadowlands. Eagles look confused and listless. This one could get ugly, especially if Westbrook doesn't play.
Ravens 30 Eagles 17

DENVER (-9.5) over Oakland
As bad as the Denver defense is, the Raider offense is worse. Sonmething has to give! We'll take the Broncos at home in what will undoubtedly be frigid, non-California like weather, and lay the points.
Broncos 20 Raiders 10

NY Giants (-3.5) over ARIZONA
Can't bring ourselves to bet against the G-Men, even if Brandon Jacobs doesn't play. Kurt Warner will be pressured by Big Blue into rushing his throws, and the Cardinal defense has not shown us any reason to believe they will stop the Giants. Potentially high scoring affair, but take the better team.
Giants 30 Cardinals 24

Washington (-3.5) over SEATTLE
Look for the Skins to bounce back and keep the NFC East race tight for at least another week.
Redskins 24 Seahawks 14

Indianapolis (+2.5) over SAN DIEGO
Chargers continue to play just well enough to lose, and the red hot Colts are hitting their stride at precisely the right time. An ominous sign if you're Norv Turner.
Colts 22 Chargers 17

MONDAY
NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) over Green Bay
Big play offense back in the Dome. PAck ripe for letdown after blowout win.
Saints 27 Packers 24

Last Week: 8-8
Season Total: 77-82 (48%)

NFL Picks - Week 11

November is upon us already, meaning the games get that much important as playoff seedings are decided, and the contenders are separated from the pretenders, the men from the boys, the wheat from the chaff if you will.

More cliches, anyone? No? Okay, lets get the picks rolling as we look to start up some serious momentum to finish with a flourish:

Thursday
NY Jets (+3.5) over NEW ENGLAND
Jets finally have discovered the potent ground game, and while there is no way they rack up totals like last week here in muddy Foxboro, the hunch here is that they'll ahve enough to grind out a tough win.
Jets 17 Patriots 14

Sunday
ATLANTA (-5.5) over Denver
Falcs dominant at home, Broncos can;t stop a decent rushing attack. We're through underestimating Atlanta. This one could be a blowout.
Falcons 31 Broncos 17

CINCINNATI (+9.5) over Philadelphia
Bengals are a little friskier at home, and should be able to hang tight with Philly team which could be looking ahead to Baltimore, then Arizona in the next two weeks.
Eagles 23 Bengals 21

Chicago (+5.5) over GREEN BAY
LIne seems a bit high, so we'll take the Bears, since they won't be fazed by any crazy weather in Wisconsin.
Bears 20 Packers 16

INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5) over Houston
Colts are wide awake and poised for a nice run. No way they let Texans control game as they did for about 54 minutes in last meeting.
Colts 30 Texans 13

KANSAS CITY (+4.5) over New Orleans
Chiefs have to win one of these close ones after falling just short last three games, right? No better option that here at Arrowhead against a fragile Saint team.
Chiefs 23 Saints 20

MIAMI (-10.5) over Oakland
It shows just how far the Fins have come in such a short time to see them laying double digits to anhyone, even a woeful bunch like the Raiders. Here, we just can't see the Silver and Black scoring enough, if at all, to get the cover.
Dolphins 24 Raiders 6

NY GIANTS (-6.5) over Baltimore
G-Men now embark on the tougher part of the schedule, but this is one poised group. Ravens have been a pleasant surprise, but we can see young Joe Flacco feeling some heat this week frmo the Big Blue pass rush.
Giants 24 Ravens 16

Minnesota (+3.5) over TAMPA BAY
Bucs better at home, but it looks like Adrian Peterson is upping his game. Bucs could be starting to fade here.
Vikings 27 Bucs 20

Detroit (+14.5) over CAROLINA
No logical reason to take the Lions, who have been absolutely dreadful. Jake Delomme looked off his game last week, so we'll go out on a very shaky limb and grab the boatload of points.
Panthers 27 Lions 15

Tennessee (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Is this the week the '72 Dolphins pop the corks? Nope. Jags waaaay too inconsistent, and we can see the Titans grinding out an efficient road win.
Titans 20 Jaguars 16

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over St. Louis
Rams can't be as bad as they showed the world last week, but the Niners are due to have a laugher, and will get one here.
49ers 30 Rams 17

Arizona (-6.5) over SEATTLE
Cards laying nearly a touchdown on the road, in November? Yep, we're in bizarro world alright.
Hawks are a mess, and this line is well within reach for surging Redbirds.
Cardinals 31 Seahawks 20

PITTSBURGH (-6.5) over San Diego
Bow your heads for the Chargers, whose season will suffer a nearly fatal blow with a loss here. Steelers are due to roll after tough home losses to Giants and Colts in recent weeks.
Steelers 22 Chargers 13

WASHINGTON (+1.5) over Dallas
Romo returns, but there are several other problems surrounding this team. Skin pass rush can and will force #9 to make mistakes, as he is prone to do. Grab the home team and the points.
Redskins 20 Cowboys 17


Monday
Cleveland (+4.5) over BUFFALO
Bills winless since granting a contract extension to coach. Coincindence, or simply the league catching up to the team? Not sure, but Buffalo really needs a win here to keep pace with Jets/Pats/Dolphins, and should get it, but it won't be easy.
Bills 23 Browns 20

Last Week: 6-8, yet again
Season: Let's just say we're still below 50% and leave it at that, okay?

NFL Picks - Week 3

We saw a little bit of everything last week: horrific officiating in Denver, incredibly dumbass showboating in Dallas, a seemingly lame duck coach winning by 16 points, and a team from New England putting a halt to 76,000 J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jest! fans all to ready to shovel the dirt.

As for the picks, we had an incredibly mediocre 8-7 week (thanks to the cancellation in Houston, only 15 games were on the docket).

Week 3 sees some very intriguing matchups - Pittsburgh/Philly and Dallas/Green Bay the most prominent. Some of the lines seem very wacky, and if we've learned anything, it's to go with the wacky. On to the choices:

Kansas City (+4.5) over ATLANTA
As bad as KC looked at home last week vs. the Radiers, and trsut us, it was bad, we just have issues with the Falcons being 4.5 point faves over anyone. Tyler Thigpen, with a week of first team reps under his belt, starts at QB for KC. On second thought, maybe this is simply a heart pick.
Atlanta 20 Kansas City 17

BUFFALO (-8.5) over Oakland
Surprising Bills, at home, will in no way, shape or form allow the Radiers to even sniff 300 yards on the ground. Force JaMarcus Russel to out it up, and bad things will happen. Toss in the uncertainty surrounding Lane Kiffin, and you've got the recipe for a Buffalo Blowout.
Bills 27 Raiders 10

CHICAGO (-3.5) over Tampa Bay
Not loving the Bucs on the road, and thinking that Mr. Forte will pop a few big runs, allowing the Bears to move to 2-1.
Bears 20 Bucs 16

TENNESSEE (-4.5) over Houston
Impromptu bye week for TExans last week won't help here. Titans look tough, and should be able to cover this number in their own digs.
Titans 24 Texans 13

MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Carolina
Let's see, 0-2 Vikes favored over 2-0 Panthers? Yeah, that makes sense. Is Gus Frerotte that much of a difference maker? We'll see. He can't help but improve an offense that had to settle for 5 FG's last week. Panthers might be due for a bit of a letdown here.
Vikings 23 Panthers 17

NEW ENGLAND (-12.5) over Miami
And you thought the days of double digit Pat lines were over? Well, they likely are after this week. Matt Cassell will act as the caretaker of the offense, while 3 headed running back attack will keep Fish on their heels all afternoon. Pat D will harass Pennington all day.
Patriots 30 Dolphins 13

NY GIANTS (-13.5) over Cincinnati
Early season scheduling gifts just keep coming for Big Blue. No way do they letdown against hapless Bungles. Carson Palmer's feet are already shuffling...
Giants 31 Bengals 10

WASHINGTON (-1.5) over Arizona
Skins found some life last week, and this Cardinal team has yet to really be tested. Washington defense can bottle up the immobile Kurt Warner while Clinton Portis and Co. will grind up yards, and clock.
Redskins 24 Cardinals 13

DENVER (-5.5) over New Orleans
Saints have trouble stopping anyone consistently, and Broncos offense is in mid-season form (despite "assistance" from Ed Hoculi). Another shootout? Very, very likely?
Broncos 37 Saints 28

Detroit (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Egads, we're actually taking the Lions? On the road? Yep - they hung tough before late cosmetic scores led to Packer blowout last week, while the Niners just seem like the kind of team that will play a tight game every week.
49ers 27 Lions 24

SEATTLE (-9.5) over St. Louis
Seahawks are all over the place, but the Rams are a straight up mess.
Seahawks 31 Rams 16

BALTIMORE (-1.5) over Cleveland
Did you hear that thump? It was the Browns, crashing back to Earth. It's gonna be a long year in Cleveland, as maybe, just maybe, this team wasn't really as good as everyone thought.
Ravens 17 Browns 10

PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) over Pittsburgh
Home team pick, plain and simple. Iggles looking dangerous, and you just know the defense will clamp down after allowing Dallas to rack up 40+. Status of Big Ben casts a bit of a shadow over Pitt as well.
Eagles 24 Steelers 20

INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) over Jacksonville
Add Bob Sanders to the list of Indy's walking wounded, which is another huge blow - recall how the run defense was shredded in 2006 while he was out. Jags, pre-season Super Bowl pick for many a writer, drop to 0-3? It's more likely than you think.
Colts 23 Jaguars 13

GREEN BAY (+2.5) over Dallas
First real test for Aaron Rogers, on the big stage against the Big Bad Cowboys. WE get the feeling that this is where Dallas will stumble - Philly exposed some flaws in the defense last week which a good team like the Pack can exploit, while the tough Green Bay defense will put some heat on Romo and Co.
Packers 23 Cowboys 20

MONDAY

NY Jets (+8.5) over SAN DIEGO
Normally, a team as good as the Chargers, staring 0-3 in the face, would be an automatic pick. A few reasons why we're going the other way: 1) Chargers have had a hell of a time stopping anyone thus far, and letting Brett Favre have all kinds of time means he'll eventually find someone to throw to, 2) LT is nicked up, and losing your most synamic offensive force has to knock your effectiveness down a notch or two, 3) getting jobbed last week in Denver seems to have made the whiny Chargers even more so, if that's even possible. Shockingly, we like the Jets to win outright.
Jets 27 Chargers 26

Best Bets: Giants, Patriots, Broncos

Last Week: 8-7
Season total: 17-14

Best Bets
Last Week: 1-2
Season: 1-2

NFL Picks - Week 2

As expected, Week 1 was a mixed bag, and we came out with a 9-7 mark thanks to a Monday Night seweep. PLenty of question marks surround Week 2, as big names are either out for the year (Brady, Merriman), or haven't really found their legs yet (Peyton Manning). Best Bets have returned (we were rushed last week and simply ignored them. We can do that, since this is our blog). Let's get started:

Tennessee (+1.5) over CINCINNATI
Titans might be more effective on offense with Kerry Collins. Bengals are a mess.
Titans 24 Bengals 10

New Orleans (+1.5) over WASHINGTON
It's gonna take awhile for the Redskins to mesh on offense, while the Saints seem intent on unleashing Reggie Bush. Could be a blowout.
Saints 23 Redskins 13

CAROLINA (-3.5) over Chicago
Bears a fluke last week? Maybe. A healthy Jake Delomme couplled with second straight road game for Bears spells a Panther win.
Panthers 20 Bears 12

JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) over Buffalo
Bills looked solid in opening day win, but facing an angry Jags team that can't afford to start 0-2 n the wilting FLA heat will prove to be too much.
Jaguars 24 Bills 14

Green Bay (-2.5) over DETROIT
The Aaron Rogers Era starts with a bang, and here is where he gets his first road win. Lions are a mess whcih can make some noise on offense, but we're not counting on late garbage time TD's this week.
Packers 27 Lions 13

KANSAS CITY (-3.5) over Oakland
Game Chiefs nearly shocked the world in Foxboro last week, and could be one of those teamsn whihc end up playing tough and coming up short every week. The home opener at Arrowhead is one they can, and should, take.
Chiefs 20 Raiders 9

NY Giants (-8.5) over ST. LOUIS
Giants were the best road team in the world in '07, and opponents like the woeful Rams will do nothing to diminish that standing. Ugly one here.
Giants 30 Rams 13

Indianapolis (-1.5) over MINNESOTA
Leap of Faith taking the Colts, but we just can't see this team starting 0-2. Vikes, pre-season Super Bowl pick for many, face a quick 2 game deficit in division. YIkes.
Colts 24 Vikings 20

San Francisco (+8.5) over SEATTLE
Does home field mean this much for a Seahawk team using a backup QB, a team of RB's, and backup wideouts? Really? We'll grab the plethora of points and hold our nose.
Seahawks 23 49ers 21

TAMPA BAY (-8.5) over Atlanta
Despite Jon Gruden's insistence on using as many QB's as possible, and the impressive debut of Matt Ryan and the new-look Falcs, we just can't drink the Kool-Aid yet.
Buccaneers 28 Falcons 14

New England (+2.5) over NY JETS
Jet fans (and Jet media) might be overestimating this team a wee bit, putting them in the Super Bowl before Tom Brady was even off the filed on Sunday. Pats will find a way to keep this one tight, and keep the heat on Favre all day.
Patriots 23 Jets 20

ARIZONA (-6.5) over Miami
Fish hung tough vs. Jets last week, but cross country travel can't be helpful here. Cardinals at 2-0 after this, can stake claim to legitimate shot at division. Really.
Cardinals 19 Dolphins 10

San Diego (-2.5) over DENVER
Not buying Broncs big explosion last week against befuddled Raiders. Chargers steamed after last second defeat at home vs. Panthers last week, will come out ready ro roll.
Chargers 27 Broncos 16

Pittsburgh (-5.5) over CLEVELAND
Tough way to open for Brownies, facing Steelers after opening vs. Cowboys, but if it expects to contend will have to find a way to beat the good teams. Not gonna happen this week.
Steelers 24 Browns 13

MONDAY

Baltimore (+4.5) over HOUSTON
Joe Flacco! He's 1-0, and showed some moxie last week - more inmportantly, his team seems to believe in him. Texans might win outright, but Raven D will keep it tight.
Texans 20 Ravens 17

DALLAS (-6.5) over Philadelphia
Cowboys are on a mission, and will not be folled by 38 point Eagle outburst last week. TO loves the prime time games, and this one could be a blowout.
Cowboys 31 Eagles 17

BEST BETS: Saints, Giants, Chargers

Last Week: 9-7 (56.25%)
Season: 9-7 (56.25%)

NFL Picks - Week 1

Finally, the NFL is back, baby!

Time is short this week, and analysis for Week 1 is usually pointless, so let's just roll out the selections and see how they fly...

THURSDAY
We had the Giants (-3.5), honestly.

SUNDAY
Detroit (-2.5) over ATLANTA (Lions 23 Falcons 10)
Seattle (+.5) over BUFFALO (Seahawks 21 Bills 16)
TENNESSEE (+3.5) over Jacksonville (Titans 20 Jaguars 17)
N.Y. Jets (-2.5) over MIAMI (Jets 30 Dolphins 17)
Kansas City (+16.5) over NEW ENGLAND (Pats 24 Chiefs 10)
Tampa Bay (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS (Saints 21 Bucs 20)
St. Louis (+7.5) over PHILADELPHIA (Eagles 27 Rams 20)
Houston (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH (Steelers 23 Texans 20)
BALTIMORE (-.5) over Cincinnati (Ravens 17 Bengals 13)
Carolina (+9.5) over SAN DIEGO (Chargers 26 Panthers 21)
Arizona (-2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO (Cardinals 24 49ers 10)
CLEVELAND (+3.5) over Dallas (Cowboys 20 Browns 17)
INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) over Chicago (Colts 29 Bears 7)

MONDAY
GREEN BAY (-2.5) over Minnesota (Packers 19 Vikings 14)
Denver (-1.5) over OAKLAND (Broncos 16 Raiders 9)

Just Do What They Say And I Won't Get Hurt

Worlds collided on Thursday when everyone's favorite prima donna attention whore extraordinaire Brett Favre put down what should be very temporary roots in the media capital of the world.

This should end well.

Does this look like the face of a guy who ended up where he wanted to go? We swear that if you watch the video closely from yesterday's introductory press conference, you could see Favre blinking in morse code "s-a-v-e-m-e". The whole thing looked like a hostage video. It was very clear that Ol #4 wanted no part of the Jets, and fully expected to be holding up a Viking or Buc jersey at this point.

Too bad, Brett. You played this whole thing about as poorly as it could be done, tarnishing your legacy in the process. Sure, a handful of dumbasses in Green Bay will clamor for your return and never stop loving you, but the large majority of fans think you're an idiot. Football's Roger Clemens, if you will. We hope Aaron Rogers kicks ass this season.

How will this play out? Is it more Joe Montana to KC (got as far as the Conference Championship game) or more like Joe Namath to the Rams (generally shit the bed)? Our guess is somewhere in between, say 8-8, with plenty of slobbering commentary from Peter King and John Madden along the way.

It's Time To Can The Pro Bowl

The NFL played its annual Hawaii vacation All-Star game this past Sunday, not that you would have noticed. Seriously, half the big name players decline to attend, and the game itself generates absolutely zero interest. For that matter, All Star games in general seem to be on the decline - witness how baseball decided to spice things up by attaching home field advantage in the World Series to the winner, which will go down as one of the dumbest ideas of all time. The NBA game amounts to nothing more than a defenseless dunkfest, while the NHL version, while freewheeling, still places little to no emphasis on things that are important, like contact. Baseball, Basketball and Hockey have tries to make events of the games by celebrating All Star Weekends, or similarly themed Fan Fests, which were cool at first (like the Slam Dunk contest or Home Run Derby), but have seen interest on the wane.

The beef here, however, is with the NFL. By its very nature, football is a brutal contact sport. PLaying an actual game in which players clearly want to do nothing more than avoid getting hurt is never a good idea. Absolutely nothing is at stake for the participants, either. Seeing that the contract the league was under to hold the game in Hawaii each year is up, now is as good a time as any to call it a day and shut this game down. Would anyone actually care, other than the Honolulu tourism board? Quick: name the last 5 winners of the Pro Bowl? See, nobody cares!

The solution, then? We like the idea of integrating the All Star players with the events of Super Bowl week. Some have mentioned playing the game during the off week, but again, the game isn't the thing. Also, what about the players who are playing in the Super Bowl? No way in hell their respective coaches allow them to do this. How about naming the actual Pro Bowlers after the conclusion of the regular season? Once the All Conference players have been named, setup an event in the host city which honors these guys, and throw in the annual awards (MVP, Rookie of the Year, etc.) while you're at it, and make it the NFL Annual Awards Night or some such thing. A black tie event, with high priced tickets, right smack dab in the middle of the biggest self-congratulatory party week an organization can throw itself sonds like a winner to us.

So, to review: no more Pro Bowl, huge public high priced slobberfest instead, massive coverage, everybody wins. Mr. Goodell, you can contact us at the e-mail address provided for further details. We'll take a cut rate, because we care.

This Really Did Happen, Right?

Four days later and it still takes a minute to pause and realize that the Giants won the freaking Super Bowl, and Eli Manning is the MVP. This really happenend, right?
Pretty much everything that could have been said afterwards has been already, but a few things still stand out for us:

4th and 13, Coach Bellichick? Going for it on 4th and 13? If you can't trust your kicker to hit a 48 yarder, indoors, then he shouldn't be on the roster (recall that the terminally shaky Lawrence Tynes hit a 47 yarder in frigid Green Bay two weeks ago to get the Giants to this game?). It's unknown whether this was simple arrogance on Bellichick's part, thinking his juggernaut offense would bury the Giants with a TD, or just a lapse in judgement. It would be hard to understand the arrogance angle, given how his team was having all kinds of issues moving the ball anyway up until that point.

Seeing Tom Brady hit the turf time and time again was truly an amazing sight to see, especially when recalling how many times during the 18-0 run he just sat there, untouched, scanning the field for a receiver.

The Manning to David Tyree play, which is still awaiting a name for the ages. There are no words. Care to suggest what we call this play, a la "The Catch", or "The Drive"?

Tom Petty ripping through a note perfect version of "Free Fallin’" – just as the Pats dream began to crumble.

The racist stereotype salesgenie.com ad. Wow. Just, wow.
[Note: The ad has since been pulled due to the uproar it caused. Imagine that.]

Super Bowl Preview

Finally, can we get to the damn game already? Whatever genius from the NFL made the executive decision to stick an extra week between the conference championships and the Super Bowl, look what you have wrought. Media Day is an absolute joke, where nothing of note has happened since Jim McMahon mooned a helicopter in 1986. Reporters from such sports non-entities as TMZ.com and Entertainment Tonight descend upon the host city looking for “fun” “entertaining” “stories”, resulting in such hard hitting tales of what Tom Brady is doing at his baby mama’s house at 9:00 in the morning. Riveting stuff.

It’s a shame too, because as potentially great a game this could turn out to be, one gets the feeling it could’ve been even better had it been played last Sunday. The Giants’ momentum coupled with the drama surrounding Brady’s ankle….sounds like a great game. Too bad we had to endure BootGate instead.

That said, we feel this will still be a competitive game. Let’s do a little breakdown and see where we end up:

When The Pats Have The Ball – Ahh, so many weapons, only one football. Much has been made of how this group has slowed down as the season progressed, and there is some statistical evidence, mainly on the scoreboard, to support this. However, getting back into a dome/warm environment could be just what the doctor ordered to let this bunch flourish as it did in September/October. How impressive have the Pats been in the playoffs? Randy Moss has two, count ‘em, two catches in the two games, and they’re still here, winning by an average of 10 points. Brady is not afraid to make full use of everybody, and when Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, Dante Stallworth or Jabar Gaffney are all covered, he dumps to no-longer unsung hero Kevin Faulk. Truly a terrifying bunch, and one that is no doubt keeping Giant defensive coordinator Steve Spagnolo from getting a lot of sleep this week. Oh, and the emergence of a ground game, which drained the final 9 plus minutes of the AFC title game behind Lawrence Maroney and occasionally Heath Evans, needs to be considered as well. If there is one team that has as front seven which could unnerve the Pats, it’s the boys from Jersey. No team was better this year in pressuring the QB, and the Pats should expect plenty of heat along with some looks they didn’t see either on film or during the Week 17 match-up. Football purists will be in their glory watching the trenches during this game, particularly the Matt Light/Osi Umenyoura battle. The key will be found here, as any lack of pass rush or general pressure from the front seven will put immense pressure on the Giant secondary, which is no doubt still smarting from that December night in the Meadowlands. It will be a long night for these guys if Osi and Michael Strahan don’t make some noise.

When The Giants Have The Ball – What else can be said about Eli Manning? The kid has been fantastic in getting his team here, and you can see his confidence and leadership growing with each win. Jersey will not be intimidated by this Pats defense, which they moved the ball on quite well in Week 17. Only when the Pats started blitzing were they able to slow down Manning, so he should expect to see some blitzes, or blitz looks, early on. One way to neutralize that is by utilizing the double barreled ground attack of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw – both of whom have been able to pick up crucial yardage in big spots. Doing this along with a controlled passing attack could enable the Giants to drain some clock, keep an older bunch of guys on the field for a long time and, most importantly, keep Brady and Co. on the sidelines.

Special Teams – Lawrence Tynes is an adventure, and many Giant fans are hoping that this doesn’t come down to a late FG attempt. Nothing else about either team’s units poses a significant edge over the other.

Coaching – It’s been said that if you give Bill Bellichick two weeks, and he’ll usually come out ahead. Tough to argue with that, but don’t underestimate Tom Coughlin. Rarely, if ever, mentioned when talking about great current coaches, the guy seems to always find his way to the playoffs, and finally got over the hump to make his first Super Bowl. He modified his approach this year, and his players responded in kind. Well, losing Tiki Barber likely helped him a lot as well, since it eliminated the whispers to the beat writers that the Today Show pretty boy became noted for. Watching how the Pats players rallied around their leader after the whole “SpyGate” thing in Week 1 showed how much these guys love their coach too. Don’t think for a minute that these guys don’t want 19-0 as much for Bellichick as for themselves.

The Pick – All signs point to a close game, and we honestly have been going back and forth since the Tynes kick sailed through the frozen Lambeau uprights as to which team we would pick. We could see the Giants grinding it out a la the bunch that upset the Bills in Supe XXV. We could also see a high scoring, wildly entertaining repeat of the 38-35 game from December. After all that, we’re going with what many might feel is a cop out: Pats win, Giants cover, and the inevitable 19-0 dream year becomes a reality. Bonus: we’ll never have to see another televised interview with Mercury Morris!

Giants (+13.5)
Let’s say Patriots 31 Giants 20

Boston Fans, Media Play It Safe

You can bet the Patriots are a confident bunch heading into the Super Bowl, and with good reason: being the first team ever to go 18-0 will have that effect. Despite this fact, one will be hard pressed to hear any arrogance from them as the week progresses. Bill Bellichick runs a pretty tight ship, and you won't hear any declarations like "We're gonna win" out of the mouths of Brady, Bruschi, or even Moss. Boring? Maybe, but pretty standard stuff nonetheless.
The Boston media and fans, however, are a different story.
Risking embarassment, or just trying to strike just before the iron gets hot, two products hit the market yesterday:

1.) A book about the magical 19-0 season, courtesy of the Boston Globe, available for pre-order

2.) "19-0" T-Shirts, which you can "wear as history happens"...or be doused with salsa and beer and soundly humiliated when your dream dies.

The Pats can't be too happy about these things, while Giants coach Tom Coughlin will undoubtedly use them as motivational tools. In prior years things like this would be ready to go before the game, but wouldn't be advertised until the result was assured. Announcing their availability before the game just smacks of arrogance from a fan base which, admittedly, has plenty to crow about over the past few years.

We kinda liked Boston fans more when they were loveable losers. These jerks are just begging for a nice healthy dose of schadenfreude.

Links:

19-0.org

19-0: The Historic Championship Season of New England's Unbeatable Patriots (amazon)

You're Dead Wood But I Won't Fire You

Raiders owner Al Davis is apparently still alive, and continuing his sad, downward spiral. Hiring Lane Kiffin as his coach just a year ago did little to dispel the notion that any man follish enough to take this job would be constantly haunted by the specter of the crypt-keeper-like owner. Conventional wisdom dictated that the young coach would be merely a puppet for the whims of the crazy old man.

The result? A dismal 4-12 season. Losing patience, Davis allegedly asked Kiffin to resign his position so he could bring in Dennis "Crown Their Asses" Green to oversee the ongoing train wreck. As usual, control over player decisions is playing a factor. Kiffin, however, has other ideas - he's not giving Davis the satisfaction.

According to Chris Mortensen:
Davis has gone so far to draft a letter of resignation for Kiffin to sign, a source said. Kiffin has refused to do so but has dared Davis to fire him instead.

Kiffin, who was 4-12 in his first season as coach, has two years remaining on his contract at an estimated $2 million per year.

We love the idea of a lawyer calling up the coach and saying that your boss would like him to step down, likely so he won't have to pay him, and expecting the coach to say, "Sure, okay that sounds perfectly reasonable."

Fight the power, Lane!

It Could Be Worse

As much as we (and just about everyone else) hate how the NFL insists on taking an extra week between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl every year, we do take some small comfort in realizing that somehow, on some level, it would have been ten times more unbearable if the Packers had won. Imagine the number of slobbering articles and gushing reports from Arizona as everybody's favorite gunslingin' fun havin' good ol' warrior Brett Favre was involved.

[shudder]

By comparison, having to endure 10 days of Manning related stories versus The State Of Brady's Foot doesn't sound so bad. Can't wait to see if anyone makes an ass of himself at Media Day. We're betting on Rodney Harrison, since he might actually hear some questions about A) Roids or B) his general asshole-ish tactics on the field. Grow a pair, media guys, and grill him. What's the worst that could happen, other than perhaps a little skirmish?

NFL Picks - Conference Championships

It's going to be hard to top last week, let's get that out there right now. After an intensifying as the game progressed snowstorm in Green Bay to the Jags giving the Pats a decent battle on Saturday, followed by the Colts-Bolts see saw game to Big Blue showing a ton of grit and teamwork to shut down the Cowboys on Sunday, it was a tremendous 48 hours. To top it off, we went 3-1 as well, as only Indy didn't fare as expected.

Obviously, it sucks to be a team comes this far and loses. That gets compounded when you are the team that is expected to do well, only to find your season suddenly over. Despite all that, only in rare cases can a team say "we were robbed" or "they didn't win the game, we lost it!" or some such things, and 99% of the time these statements are made when the loss stings like a fresh wound, so they're taken with a grain of salt. None of this, however, applies to the idiotic statement by Dallas coach Wade Phillips a full day after his top seeded Cowboys were bounced by the Giants. "The better team didn't win", said the coach. Really, Wade? Let's have a look at that, shall we?

Is that "the better team" which committed a staggering 11 penalties (for 84 yards), many of them devastating?

Or is it "the better team" whose offensive line was gasping for wind in the fourth quarter as the Giant defensive lineman blew by them?

Perhaps it was "the better team" who had receivers aligator arming several passes, while dropping several others?

Sorry, Wade, but the better team emerged with the win on Sunday, despite what the yardage and time of possession numbers say. And, you are now 0-4 in the postseason.

The biggest highlight of the weekend, maybe the entire season however, had to be this:



Man, we're getting teary just watching it again, but these are from laughing so damn hard. What an ass.

On to the picks...

AFC - 3:00 PM EST
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over San Diego
All things being equal, the Pats are the clear choice, despite the fact that their games have gotten tighter as the second half of the season wore on. Toss in the number of dings to key Charger players and it seems like the Bolts will have a hard time keeping this one close at all. The Pats can taste it now, and the realization that they are just 2 games away from immortality is all the motivation they'll need. Throw in some stupid comments by Igor Olshansky, and the general douchebaggery that is Philp Rivers, and you're just adding more fuel to the fire.

KEY PLAYERS: San Diego - Antonio Cromartie. The ball hawking, big play abilities of this guy can play a huge factor in how well the Patriots offense can produce. Cro is always around the ball, and has an uncanny knack for finding the end zone (see last week's called back TD just before halftime, on what was a pretty bogus call). If he can disrupt Moss, Welker and the rest, it could force Tom Brady to check off and look for his 3rd or 4th option - perhaps giving Shawne Merriman and the gang a chance to knock Brady on his butt. For New England, we'll go with Randy Moss. He caught only one ball last week, but his presence alone caused matchups which allowed Wes Welker to grab approximately 57 balls, and Brady to be near perfect. If he draws double coverage, look for a repeat of last week. If not, he'll be a human highlight reel.

The Pick: No sense picking against what has seemed to be inevitable for months. Patriots 34 Chargers 15



NFC - 6:30 PM EST
NY Giants (+7) over GREEN BAY
First things first, the weather will be just as much a pain in the ass to Brett Favre as it will be to Eli Manning. Though it was a Winter Wonderland in Wisconsin last week, it wasn't accompanied by bone rattling temps and sub-zero wind chills. You don't have to look back very far (Week 16 in Chicago) to see how this severe weather affected Favre - he was brutal, as was the entire Packer team in a 35-7 loss. Manning has been no day at the beach either in these types of situations, but all this talk of "Packer Weather" and what not just sounds like posturing at this point. Both teams have solid running games, and the one that proves more effective and mistake free will likely lead its team to the Super Bowl.

KEY PLAYERS: New York - Eli Manning. Should the game plan work as designed, Eli should have to simply manage the game, not force any passes, and keep his cool, just like he's been doing since the Week 17 kickoff against New England. He's done a good job thus far, and doesn't get rattled in hostile environments, however if the G-Men fall behind early it will be interesting to see how he responds. For Green Bay, let's go with Ryan Grant. The ex-Giant had the game of his young career last week, and the fact that he bounced back after two disastrous early fumbles which resulted in Seattle touchdowns made his day even sweeter. He won't have the slippery field advantage this week, and the Giants showed they could clamp down on the run in the second half last week. Suffice it to say that if Grant gets his yards, the Packers will be hoisting the Halas trophy around 10:00 on Sunday.

The Pick: Somehow, Favre makes it happen, and the NFL gets the match up it wants.
Packers 24 Giants 21

Last Week: 3-1
Playoff Total: 4-3-1

NFL Picks - Divisional Round

We sat watching football last weekend, presumably NFL football. We weren't sure what the game was about - was it a special game? A regular season match up? All-star game perhaps?

Thank goodness the powers that be were kind enough to put, right there on the field, 20 yards across, the word PLAYOFFS. We smacked our collective forehead, and gave thanks that the glorious league continued with its continuing campaign to CHEAPEN. EVERYTHING. Seriously, from officially sanctioned celebrations (wearing official celebratory logo hats and T-shirts) to prepackaged, canned trophy presentations, it's just so much crap. "Wait, before you begin your spontaneous celebration, put these things on - okay, now go whoop it up!"
Eh, let's just move on.

Buck up, kiddies, we've only got seven, count 'em, seven more NFL games (we don't count the Pro Bowl lovefest, thank you very much) that matter left this season. As depressing as that sounds, don't let that spoil the greatness that is this weekend - the top seeded teams return after a well earned week off, and the survivors from Wild Card weekend all are looking to keep the magic alive another week. Good stuff.

Some late ugliness by the Titans contributed to a 1-2-1 mark last week, as only the Seahawks panned out, while the Jags decided to tank an 18 point lead, then not go for the spread covering TD late in the fourth quarter, thus earning the enmity of gambl- er, "gamers" everywhere by gaining a push. Tennessee was covering for about, oh, 54 minutes before allowing the second chance LT goal line plunge to fall by 11. Only with the Tampa pick did were we completely wrong, as Eli Manning decided he would be Phil Simms, circa 1986.

Let's dive right in with the selections:


Saturday
GREEN BAY Bay (-8) over Seattle
"Packers at Lambeau" isn't as automatic as one would think - they're just 4-4 in the last 8 playoff games on the no-longer-frozen-heat-coils-under-the-tundra. Favre must've needed a week off, at his age, and the place will be abuzz with vision of a trip to Big D next week. Much has been made about the YAC (yards after catch) factor of the Green Bay wideouts, but the physical Seattle corners could slow them down.

THE KEY: The Seahawk offense. They did not look great in winning last week, as the misleading final score was padded by two defensive TD's. Matt Hasselbeck will need to carry much of the load, and the speedy Pack defense could be teeing off on him as the game progresses. It's been a magical sesaon thus far in Green Bay, as very few people outside of Wisconsin expected this team to be here. We don't see the ride ending just yet.
Packers 27 Seahawks 17

Jacksonville (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND
Jags, as stated above, tried like hell to give the game away last week, but were saved by David Garrard's legs (and perhaps a slight hold on the play) in knocking off the Steelers. Weather will not bother this team, as they are built to play in foul conditions. The defense, though prone to lapses (see last week, late 3rd/early 4th quarter), has enough to stifle the mediocre Pat running game while keeping some heat on Tom Brady.

THE KEY: Patriots defense. They played much better than they actually were for most of the season, owing to large leads provided by the record setting offense. When games have been tightly contested (Eagles, Ravens, Giants), the cracks have shown. There is no way this one is a blowout, despite any of the bulletin board items put out there by the press this week, and teams have shown that just by staying close to the mighty Pats inspires a ton of confidence. Jacksonville is the better than the teams mentioned above that have challenged NE, so this figures to be tight, with the aforementioned New England defense likely being forced to come up with one or two key stops in the 4th to hang on and advance to the AFC title game, but not by much.
Patriots 31 Jaguars 27


Sunday
INDIANAPOLIS (-9) over San Diego
Bolts are brimming with confidence after second half surge last week produced first playoff win since 1994. The team is clearly on a roll since late October, and there is something to be said for riding the wave of momentum into the playoffs. Included in the recent surge was a win over this Indy team, which will do nothing but enhance the San Diego belief that this game is theirs for the taking.
Back it up, boys, let's take a look at that, shall we? We don't think it's likely that the Chargers will score two TD's on kick returns, intercept SIX Peyton Manning passes, and have Adam Vinitieri shank a chip shot figgie late in the game. All of those things happened in the previous match up.

THE KEY: Tomlinson. With Antonio Gates hurting, QB Philip Rivers loses one of his best weapons, and a fired up Colts defense will give him fits all day. LT needs to elevate his game and be the game breaking back he has shown himself to be, but in a big spot. It wouldn't hurt if Norv Turner tried to get him as many touches as possible - can anyone explain why he didn't do this in the first half last week? Sorry, Norv, the run ends in the Dome.
Colts 24 Chargers 13


NY Giants (+7.5) over DALLAS
The only red flag seems to be that, much like the Jags last week, everyone loves the G-Men. No doubt, they were very impressive last week, and seem to be playing with a loose confidence of a team that has absolutely nothing to lose. They don't, as the 'Boys are the overwhelming favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. One small problem; Dallas has been playing its least impressive football over the past month or so. Terrell Owens is a game time decision, though it would be a big surprise to not see him out there. Tony Romo not only has a bum thumb, but has been forced to answer questions all week about his little Mexican holiday with Jessica Simpson. Add into the mix the 8 game Giant road winning streak (last loss: here in Big D back in Week 1) and you've got the current conventional wisdom which says take the Jints.

THE KEY: The Giants pass rush. If they can at least contain Romo and limit his room to scramble, and occasionally knock him on his ass, their chances go way up. Romo has killed them in both meetings, tossing for nearly 600 yards. If the defense does a better job, and newly confident Eli Manning efficiently manages the game, mixing in the suddenly potent double barreled ground attack of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to control the clock and keep Dallas' offense on the sidelines, New York can keep this one close, and maybe steal it outright.
Cowboys 30 Giants 27

Last Week: 1-2-1