Saturday, October 25, 2008
Tampa Bay (+3.5) over DALLAS
We can no longer depend on the Cowboys rising to the occasion, and as banged up as they are, they'll have all they can handle with the Bucs. Let the Wade Phillips Watch commence....
Buccaneers 24 Cowboys 16
DETROIT (+7.5) over Washington
Skins have been unable to blow anyone out all season, and we have a hunch this might be the week the Lions decide not to fall behind by three touchdowns before halftime.
Redskins 28 Lions 21
MIAMI (+1.5) over Buffalo
Flashback to the 70's, when the Bills were utterly unable to win in Miami. Fins can keep this one very close, and maybe steal it.
Dolphins 17 Bills 16
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over St. Louis
Are the Pats back? Are the Rams suddenly this much better? We don;t know, but we think New England can cover this number regardless.
Patriots 27 Rams 14
NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) over San Diego (game played in London)
Another pointless Euro-game. Going against the Bolts simply due to the 9 hour time lag. We can't put a team in Hawaii, but we can pull this crap every season?
Saints 20 Chargers 17
NY JETS (-12.5) over Kansas City
Chiefs, bad enough when at full strength, are going with a 3rd striung QB (Tyler Thigpen), and have benched Larry Johnson. Further, Jets are returning home after bad loss in Oakland. It's a recipe for a blowout.
Jets 34 Chiefs 10
Atlanta (+8.5) over PHILADELPHIA
City of Brotherly Love hosting a big sports Sunday, starting with this one. Falcons have been a tough out and can move to 5-2 (!) with win here. Eagles have been a mystery, and this line seems a bit high, so we'll take Matt Ryan and Co.
Eagles 21 Falcons 17
BALTIMORE (-6.5) over Oakland
Raiders got their win last week, now face hard reality known as the Ravens defense. This one won't be pretty, and is unlikely to show up on ESPN Classic anytime in the near future.
Ravens 20 Raiders 9
Arizona (+4.5) over CAROLINA
Gotta love the Cardinals, even though Panthers are a monster at home. This one could be wild, but it should stay close no matter what.
Panthers 31 Cardinals 28
JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) over Cleveland
Jags looking to start their run, and this is the perfect week to start.
Jaguars 27 Browns 13
HOUSTON (-9.5) over Cincinnati
Texans living large after back-to-back wins, should be able to keep it alive against the mess that is the Bengals. Houston moo cows will know better than to allow a back door cover like they did last week, right?
Texans 30 Bengals 16
NY Giants (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH
Game of the Week, no doubt. Giants need to put some heat on Big Ben or it will be a long day. Pitt ground game will struggle minus Willie Parker. Late figgie decides it.
Giants 20 Steelers 17
SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5) over Seattle
After having the crazy Manson-like eyes of Mike Singletary stargin you down all week, you think these Niners don't want to go out and tear something apart? Throw in a woeful road team like Seattle and you'll see the fur fly in Frisco.
49ers 30 Seahawks 10
TENNESSEE (-4.5) over Indianapolis
...and this is the week in which America finally discovers the Titans are for real. Colts have been so up and down, and will have all kinds of trouble moving the football against a fired up Tennessee bunch.
Titans 24 Colts 13
Last Week: 8-6
Friday, October 24, 2008
First, the good. Where were we accurate?
Correctly picked as Division Winners (1 out of 6):
Correctly picked as playoff teams (3 out of 8):
Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers
Closest to actual W-L record:
Milwaukee (90-72), which we nailed exactly!
Also: We nailed the Yankees missing the playoffs, which was nice.
Now, the suckitutde:
Tampa Bay- 76-86, 4th place (with the "watch out for them in 2009" warning)
Seattle - 92-70, AL Champs(!)
Detroit - 93-69, AL Central winner
NY Mets - 95-67, World Series Champions
The Mariners, in the World Series? Really? Reality showed this team succumbing to infinghting, bad play, and the worst record in baseball. Could not have been more wrong here. In a feeble attempt a defense, many other "experts" had this team making noise. Easily the worst pick we made, followed closely by....
Detroit. Man, this team put together a modern day Murderers Row, was armed with a bevy of good young arms, and seemed poised to stomp through the AL Central. Didn't happen. The Tigers stumbled out of the gate and were never able to recover, save for a brief run in mid-summer which propelled them back to .500.
Finally, the Mets. Ugh. We really thought they could erase the epic failure of 17 up with 7 to play and get the full redemption. Probably just our hearts winning out over our heads.
Despite these horrid results, we will not be deterred from rolling out more predictions next March. The jury is still out on if we will exhibit this level of honest reflection should the choices be so horribly off.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Let's just get these out of the way, with the usual soon-to-be-disproven analysis:
ATLANTA (+2.5) over Chicago
Falcons showing plenty, especially at home. Figure this one to be close, so we'll grab the points.
Falcons 19 Bears 17
TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over Carolina
Bucs return home after tough loss in Denver, while Panthers might start slowly after last week's blowout vs. KC. Another close one, so we'll take the home team.
Buccaneers 20 Panthers 17
WASHINGTON (-13.5) over St. Louis
Are the Rams really this bad? Maybe not, but the REdskins sure do look to be that good, and it is hard to imagine them not being able to cover this number, even if it takes a late tack on score to do so.
Redskins 31 Rams 13
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Miami
A risky choice, but the Texans were a very solid team for 56 miinutes last week, and don't think every single player in that locker room isn't fully focused on taking out the frustration from that stomach punching loss. Picking against the Fish hasn;t helped us at all, but they could be due for a slight letdown.
Texans 23 Dolphins 17
INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5) over Baltimore
We can't really explain why we're taking the Colts, who have played about 34 minutes of good football thus far in 2008. Somethign seems off about this team, but we'll play the hunch that they will be able to string together a solid 60 minutes and gut one out to get their first win in their new digs.
Colts 20 Ravens 13
MINNESOTA (-13.5) over Detroit
So long as the Vikes tighten up their punt coverage, we see no reason why they can't enjoy a laugher here.
Vikings 34 Lions 16
NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) over Oakland
Just can't take the Raiders, who solved their "problem" by removing Lane Kiffin prior to last week's bye. Sean Payton will have his sloppy Saints ready to go this week after ugly MNF showing last week.
Saints 24 Raiders 14
NY JETS (-5.5) over Cincinnati
Bengals getting a little more respect from Vegas, hence this line. Jets, fresh off bye, should be ready to roll, and Bengals have played just well enough to lose last two. Look for Jet ground game to get back on track, enough to make Favre's play action that much more effective.
Jets 27 Bengals 17
DENVER (-3.5) over Jacksonville
Line seems a tad high, but Broncos have shown themselves to be very tough at home, while up and down Jags forced to make this gtrip after ugly game vs. Steelers. Close, but we'll take the Mile High guys.
Broncos 20 Jaguars 16
ARIZONA (+5.5) over Dallas
Cowboys have shown disturbing tendency to play to opponents level, and the Cards are just dangerous enough to stick around here. Will the house still be half filled with Cowboy fans, still?
Cardinals 31 Cowboys 28
SAN FRANCISCO (+5.5) over Philadelphia
Can't figure out the Eagles, who've gone from Super Bowl contender to also-ran in 3 short weeks. They're likely somewhere between the two extremes, and the hunch here is that the Niners can hang close, and maybe even steal this one.
Eagles 27 49ers 24
SEATTLE (-2.5) over Green Bay
Never in a million years would we think the Seahawks should be favored, but using the "Vegas knows something" theory, we'll take 'em. No further questions, Your Honor.
Seahawks 23 Packers 21
New England (+6.5) over SAN DIEGO
Another line which seems a little steep - Pats spent the week in Cali, and the Bolts have shown very little consistency thus far. Matt Cassell looked more confortable last week, and the San Diego pass rush has been nothing to write home about. Look for the Pats to add to further bury the Bolts.
Patriots 25 Chargers 20
NY Giants (-7.5) over CLEVELAND
Thanks, Powers That Be, for subjecting us to yet another nationally televised Browns game. Can we safely assume that the boys from Cleveland will not be part of any Flex scheduling come the second half? Please? As for the game, the Giants look very solid, and will not be deterred here.
Giants 24 Browns 10
Best Bets: Redskins, Vikings, Giants
Last Week: 6-8
Season Total: 36-38 (48.6%)
Last Week: 3-0
Season Total: 4-5 (44.4%)
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Chicago (-3.5) over DETROIT
Do the Lions get a boost for finally ending the Matt Millen Era? Absolutely, but the fact remains the BEars are a better team, and should be able to cover the relatively small number here.
Bears 27 Lions 20
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Atlanta
If ever a team needed a Homecoming Game like this one, it's the Pack. Despite Aaron Rodgers dodgy status for this one, the Cheeseheads should have enough to roll at home.
Packers 30 Falcons 17
San Diego (-6.5) over MIAMI
Chargers can't afford to take 3 quarters off like they did against the Raiders last week, or else the frisky Fins will make them pay. This is right about the time the Bolts take their game to another level and establish themselves as the best of the west.
Chargers 23 Dolphins 10
NY GIANTS (-7.5) over Seattle
Champs are rested after bye week and even without suspended wideout Plaxico Burress should have no trouble dispatching woeful on the road Seahawks.
Giants 27 Seahawks 13
Washington (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Tough going against the Eagles in Philly, but the Skins, perhaps due for a letdown after winning in Dallas, have shown improvement every week and we can't see this game being decided by more than a figgie.
Eagles 20 Redskins 17
Kansas City (+9.5) over CAROLINA
Chiefs finally back in Win column after 12 straight losses. It dcertainly won't be as easy to run against Panthers as it was versus Denver, but the hunch here is that with Huard at the controls, KC can stay close against Carolina tream which doesn't seem to ever blow anyone out.
Panthers 24 Chiefs 16
BALTIMORE (+3.5) over Tennessee
Ravens in control at Pitt last week before ugly fumble turned game around. A slugfest is virtually guaranteed here, and that usually means a tight score.
Ravens 16 Titans 13
HOUSTON (+3.5) over Indianapolis
Have to take the Texans at home against wildly inconsistent Colt team, and would not be at all surprised if they win outright. Indy could be looking at dreaded "Most Disappointing" team designation at this rate.
Texans 20 Colts 17
Tampa Bay (+3.5) over DENVER
KC exposed serious flaws in Denver's D last week, and no doubt Mike Shanahan has been working all week to plug the leaks. Broncs always better at Mile High, but Buc Cover 2 is making noise again, and should be able to hang tough.
Broncos 27 Buccaneers 24
Buffalo (+.5) over ARIZONA
Essentially a "No Line" game, we'll have no trouble taking the Bills straight up. Card lose big time weapon in Anquan Boldin, and Bills will punish and harass Kurt Warner all day.
Bills 30 Cardinals 17
New England (-3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Really? Three and a half? Pats have fallen, but not that much, and Bellichicks's post-bye record is ridiculous. Liking the Pats big here.
Patriots 34 49ers 13
DALLAS (-15.5) over Cincinnati
Speaking of big, how fired up do you think the Cowboys are after dropping home game to rival Redskins last week? Bank on many, many carries for Marion Barber and Felix Jones to atone for the head scratching decision last week to not give them the ball. Oh, and the Bengals are without Carson Palmer, just thought we'd throw that in there.
Cowboys 38 Bengals 10
JACKSONVILLE (-4.5) over Pittsburgh
Steelers are incredibly banged up, while Jags are surging. Pittsburgh is overdue to lose one ugly, and this is where it happens.
Jaguars 24 Steelers 13
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Minnesota
Tough call here, but have to go with the Saints in the Big Easy. Watch it with the volume down.
Saints 23 Vikings 16
Best Bets: Patriots, Cowboys, Bears
Last week: 7-6
Season Total: 30-30
Last Week: None (forgot!)
Season Total: 1-5