Saturday, September 19, 2009

NFL Picks - Week 2

It was a bit of an atypical Week 1 for us, as we usually do pretty well. Thanks to spectacular non-covers by the Pats and Chargers on Monday, we skidded to an 8-8 week. Some highlights from the opening games:

Denver's improbable 87 yard TD pass to beat Cincy, culminating in Brandon Stokely's goal line tightrope walk. Obviously, this guy played lots of Tecmo Bowl as a kid.

The Patriots quick strike victory over Buffalo. The decision to run the kickoff out of the end zone was actually pretty sound, but the need to figt for the extra meaningless yard nullified it.

Mark Sanchez's debut. The kid looked poised, if nothing else, but bear in mind the awful pick he threw, along with a few other ill advised tosses which could have easily been picked. The new Rex Ryan led defense will carry this team in '09.

For Week 2, it's Rivalry Week! Jets-Pats! Giants-Cowboys! Chiefs-Raiders! (Okay, only we care about that last one....)

On to the picks.

ATLANTA (-6.5) over Carolina

Panthers have become a bit of a chic pick since this line opened. We're not seeing it - Jake Delomme can play 75% better than he did a week ago and still be awful. The Falcs are home again, and have enough to grind out an ugly win.

Falcons 20 Panthers 13

Minnesota (-9.5) over DETROIT

AP, AP, and more AP. Favre will be a non-factor, meaning he'll be less likely to throw a damaging INT. Lions are better, but will have no answers for Purple Jesus.

Vikings 37 Lions 10

GREEN BAY (-9.5) over Cincinnati

Bengals reeling after ugly late loss to Denver at home, now go to Lambeau. Pack escaped with one last week, but staunch defense will have no trouble shutting down Cincy.

Packers 20 Bengals 7

Houston (+7.5) over TENNESSEE

This is not the same Titan team from 2008. Texans, a popular breakout pick by many (including this site), will be hungry and should have enough to cover this number.

Texans 23 Titans 21

KANSAS CITY (-3.5) over Oakland

Raiders might have been jobbed by reversal on that TD pass last week, and they appear to be much more disciplined thus far, but JaMarcus Russell's inaccuracy will cause problems. KC eager to please in first Arrowhead game of the Pioli/Haley regime, will take out hated AFL rivals.

Chiefs 24 Raiders 16

New England (-5.5) over NY JETS

Everybody loving the J-E-T-S Jets! JEts! Jets! after impressive opener. Couple that with New England's survival victory, and you've got plenty of concerned folks in Massachusettes. Not to worry. The Hoodie has always been able to rattle younger QB's, and Pats can look at last week as a wake-up call.

Patriots 23 Jets 14

New Orleans (+1.5) over PHILADELPHIA

Changed this one after seeing Kolb will be taking the snaps for Philly. Saints D is not stellar by any means, but Brees and CO. will be ablt to put up enough to compensate, and we're counting on some unfoirced errors by Kolb.

Saints 26 Eagles 24

WASHINGTON (-10.5) over St. Louis

Rams are absolutely dreadful. Skins bounce back in home opener, and despite the inconsistency of Jason Campbelll will be able to coast here.

Redskins 30 Rams 13

Arizona (+3.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Sorry, but the Jags are simply not very good, and do not deserve to be giving points, particularly to the defending NFC champs. We know, Western teams going East for 1:00 starts have an absolutely abysmal record, but this one is a trend bucker.

Cardinals 24 Jaguars 19

Seattle (+1.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Still not sold on Niners, even after impressive road win at Arizona. Seahawks lloked sharp vs. Rams, which really wasn't difficult to do, but the feeling here is they will steal one on the road this week.

Seahawks 27 49ers 24

BUFFALO (-4.5) over Tampa Bay

Bills come home and reignite the hope for their beleaguered fan base. Bucs hung with Dallas for awhile last week, but gave up big play after big play en route to loss. Look for T.O. to have a good game and, hopefully, keep his yap shut afterward.

Bills 30 Bucs 16

CHICAGO (+2.5) over Pittsburgh

Upset special. Bears can't afford to fall to 0-2, and the defense should step it up big time against Champs. Cutler should enjoy seeing a Troy Polamolu-less secondary as well. Robbie Gould's leg decides it.

Bears 20 Steelers 17

Cleveland (+3.5) over DENVER

Not sold at all on the Broncos, who pulled one out of their backside last week. Browns are bad, but so is Denver, so we'll grab the points and hope for a close game.

Broncos 20 Browns 17

Baltimore (+4.5) over SAN DIEGO

Chargers, minus LDT, still a potent force as Darren Sprouls takes the ball. Ravens solid on both sides of the ball, and this seems like way too high a number to pass up.

Ravens 23 Chargers 19

NY Giants (+2.5) over DALLAS

Welcome to the Enormodome, or whatever the hell Jerry Jones is calling this monstrosity of a stadium. Hope this sucke- er, fans, enjoy getting fleeced for huge sums while enjoying obstructed views, essentially paying this man tons of money to watch his large TV. Back to the game, G-Men know how to beat this team, always play well on the road, and won't be fazed. Over/Under on punts hitting the monitor is 1.5.

Giants 24 Cowboys 20


Indianapolis (-3.5) over MIAMI

We told you that the Dolphins were the prime candidate to be this season's Let Down team, and gettign off to an 0-2 start will help cement that. Colts did just enough to win opener, and will be able to cover here despite being thin at wideout.

Colts 17 Dolphins 10

Last Week: 8-8

Best Bets: Bills, Vikings, Packers

Sunday, September 13, 2009

NFL Picks - Week 1

Not much fanfare for these picks, as history tells us nobody knows anything about Week 1.  The spreads are usually low, since Vegas has no trending data or major injuries to factor into the equation.

This year, we're playing in the ESPN Pigskin Pick 'em group put together by Bill Simmons, a group with several thousand entries.  Our goal is simply yo beat Matthew Berry.

That said, here are the Week 1 selections:
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) over Tennessee (already a loss; thanks Hines Ward!)

ATLANTA (-4.5) over Miami
Denver (+3.5) over CINCINNATI
Minnesota (-3.5) over CLEVELAND
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) over Jacksonville
NEW ORLEANS (-11.5) over Detroit
Dallas (-3.5) over TAMPA BAY
Philadelphia (+0.5) over CAROLINA
BALTIMORE (-8.5) over Kansas City
N.Y. Jets (+4.5) over HOUSTON
N.Y. GIANTS (-6.5) over Washington
ARIZONA (-6.5) over San Francisco
ST. LOUIS (+7.5) over Seattle
Chicago (+3.5) over GREEN BAY

NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over Buffalo
San Diego (-6.5) over OAKLAND

Enjoy the opening weekend, everyone!

Friday, September 11, 2009

The 2009 NFL Preview!

Finally, the 2009 NFL Season is upon us. Join us, won't you, as we fearlessly attempt to forecast the season, secure in the knowledge that several significant injuries/suspensions will completely screw the crap out of these meticulously prepared choices.

In the interest of accuracy, we broke it down by taking the complete schedule, and going game-by-game, predicting who would be the winner. The won-lost records were than compiled, the standings updated, and the rest is history. Check it out:

NY Giants 13-3
Philadelphia 13-3
Dallas 10-6
Washington 9-7

Chicago 13-3
Green Bay 12-4
Minnesota 8-8
Detroit 2-14

New Orleans 12-4
Atlanta 9-7
Carolina 8-8
Tampa Bay 1-15

Arizona 8-8
Seattle 7-9
San Francisco 5-11
St. Louis 3-13

New England 12-4
NY Jets 8-8
Buffalo 4-12
Miami 4-12

Pittsburgh 14-2
Baltimore 12-4
Cincinnati 6-10
Cleveland 2-14

Indianapolis 12-4
Houston 11-5
Tennessee 9-7
Jacksonville 3-13

San Diego 13-3
Kansas City 7-9
Denver 4-12
Oakland 2-14


(6) Green Bay over (3) New Orleans
(5) Philadelphia over (4) Arizona

(1) NY Giants over (6) Green Bay
(5) Philadelphia over (2) Chicago

(5) Philadelphia over (1) NY Giants


(3) Indianapolis over (6) Houston
(4) New England over (5) Baltimore

(2) San Diego over (3) Indianapolis
(4) New England over (1) Pittsburgh

(2) San Diego over (4) New England

Super Bowl
Philadelphia over San Diego

That's right, we're picking Norv Turner and Andy Reid to each lead teams to the Super Bowl. Jeez, are we screwed.

Most jarring observations from the above:

  • Miami and Atlanta both regress, with the Dolphins seeing a more significant drop due to a tougher schedule loaded with colder outdoor games.
  • Denver dropping like a rock. Partly wishful thinking, but come on, Kyle Orton plus pouty crazypants Brandon Marshall can't offset a potentially promising running game
  • Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland will be really, really bad.
  • Detroit's 2-14 will feel like 7-9
  • Brett Favre is a douche
Enjoy the season everyone.