Friday, October 5, 2007

NFL Picks - Week 5

Another stellar week (9-5) pushes the surplus up another notch. Let's stay hot and bestow these babies upon you for Week 5:

HOUSTON (-5.5) over Miami
Dolphins are crumbling to what could be the worst season since the pre-Shula days. Texans have struggled of late, but still show up every week and put out a solid effort for Coach Kubiak. Their efforts get rewarded here.
Texans 31 Dolphins 16

KANSAS CITY (+2.5) over Jacksonville
We need to say this now, since we might not get another chance all season:

The first place Kansas City Chiefs.

Wow, that was nice. Chiefs come home after tough 3 of 4 road stretch, and can keep the momentum rolling in Arrowhead against up and down Jags.
Chiefs 24 Jaguars 20

NY Jets (+3.5) over NY GIANTS
"Road" game for Jets, who need a solid effort after tough loss in Buffalo. Whihc version of the Giant D is the real one - the sorry bunch thrashed by Dallas or the 12 sack nightamre for last week versus Philly? We think the answer lies somewhere in between. Either way, Jets can steal one with this line.
Jets 20 Giants 17

NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Carolina
Do or die for the boys from Nawlins. Fresh off a bye week, where Coach Sean Payton constantly told the players how much the world has counted them out, back in the Dome, NO should roll. David Carr starts at QB for the inconsistent Panthers.
Saints 23 Panthers 13

NEW ENGLAND (-15.5) over Cleveland
How high will these lines go for the Pats before the season is out? 20? 25? It's beginning to look like College Football spreads with these guys - but they always cover. We can't see any reason to expect a slowdown this week against overmatched Brownies.
Patriots 41 Browns 16

Detroit (+3.5) over WASHINGTON
Lions showed tons of grit in late explosion over Bears last week, and Skins under Gibbs are strangely rusty off bye weeks. Again, maybe they don't win outright, but we like the number and are going with Kitna and the God Squad.
Redskins 24 Lions 23

TENNESSEE (-8.5) over Atlanta
Pretty large number for Vince Young and Co. to cover, but coming off the bye week we can't imagine Titans missing a beat. Falcs look to be a team that will slowly improve as the season progresses, and will be a tough out in December, but look for Titans to pull away late and make this one easy.
Titans 31 Falcons 16

Arizona (-2.5) over ST. LOUIS
Any other week, this would be an obvious trap - Cardinals coming off huge home win over Pittsburgh, due for massive letdown. But for the fact that the Rams are so banged up (Pace, Jackson, now Bulger) and just might be the worst team in the NFL right now. Folks will really start taking 'Zona seriously after it racks up another W this week.
Cardinals 24 Rams 10

Seattle (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
Why this large number? Feels like a setup, but we just can't see Seahawks losing this one by more than 6. In fact, an outright win by Seattle would not be that big of an upset. Stillers need a bounceback win after last week, and we think they'll get it.
Steelers 24 Seahawks 20

INDIANAPOLIS (-10.5) over Tampa Bay
No way the line is this high if Cadiallac and Pettigout were healthy for TB, but Manning and Co. at home are tough to pick against. We're booking for a tight three quarters, followed by Colts pulling away late to cover.
Colts 29 Buccaneers 14

Baltimore (-3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Trent Dilfer starts for Niners. In what should be the ugliest game of the week, look for Ravens to prevail. Condolences to those who are forced to watch.
Ravens 12 49ers 6

San Diego (+1.5) over DENVER
Another team in a must win situation: Norv Turner's Chargers. Normally, trying to get well in the Mile High city would be a tall order, but this Bronco team could very well be 0-4 right now, and have had all kinds of issues stopping the run. So long as Bolts keep ramming LT down the Bronco's throats, they can prevail.....though watching Turner coach so far gives no indication this will occur.
Chargers 24 Broncos 17

GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Chicago
Wow. Just a few weeks ago, this line would have been, at the very least, reversed. Bears are an absolute mess right now, while Pack are the toast of the NFL. Okay, bandwagon, we'll jump on.
Packers 23 Bears 10

Dallas (-10.5) over BUFFALO
Bills looked good, and finally grabbed a W last week ( and might have found a new QB in Trent Edwards, but that's a whole 'nother story). That said, Cowboys are real solid right now, and will once again strut their stuff in front of the national TV audience.
Cowboys 27 Bills 13

BEST BETS: Patriots, Cardinals, Seahawks

Last week: 9-5

Last 3 weeks: 26-20 (56.5%)

Best Bets: 6-0 (100%)

Season Total: 34-28 (54.8%)

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