NFL Picks - Week 5

Another stellar week (9-5) pushes the surplus up another notch. Let's stay hot and bestow these babies upon you for Week 5:


HOUSTON (-5.5) over Miami
Dolphins are crumbling to what could be the worst season since the pre-Shula days. Texans have struggled of late, but still show up every week and put out a solid effort for Coach Kubiak. Their efforts get rewarded here.
Texans 31 Dolphins 16

KANSAS CITY (+2.5) over Jacksonville
We need to say this now, since we might not get another chance all season:

The first place Kansas City Chiefs.

Wow, that was nice. Chiefs come home after tough 3 of 4 road stretch, and can keep the momentum rolling in Arrowhead against up and down Jags.
Chiefs 24 Jaguars 20

NY Jets (+3.5) over NY GIANTS
"Road" game for Jets, who need a solid effort after tough loss in Buffalo. Whihc version of the Giant D is the real one - the sorry bunch thrashed by Dallas or the 12 sack nightamre for last week versus Philly? We think the answer lies somewhere in between. Either way, Jets can steal one with this line.
Jets 20 Giants 17

NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Carolina
Do or die for the boys from Nawlins. Fresh off a bye week, where Coach Sean Payton constantly told the players how much the world has counted them out, back in the Dome, NO should roll. David Carr starts at QB for the inconsistent Panthers.
Saints 23 Panthers 13

NEW ENGLAND (-15.5) over Cleveland
How high will these lines go for the Pats before the season is out? 20? 25? It's beginning to look like College Football spreads with these guys - but they always cover. We can't see any reason to expect a slowdown this week against overmatched Brownies.

Patriots 41 Browns 16

Detroit (+3.5) over WASHINGTON
Lions showed tons of grit in late explosion over Bears last week, and Skins under Gibbs are strangely rusty off bye weeks. Again, maybe they don't win outright, but we like the number and are going with Kitna and the God Squad.
Redskins 24 Lions 23

TENNESSEE (-8.5) over Atlanta
Pretty large number for Vince Young and Co. to cover, but coming off the bye week we can't imagine Titans missing a beat. Falcs look to be a team that will slowly improve as the season progresses, and will be a tough out in December, but look for Titans to pull away late and make this one easy.
Titans 31 Falcons 16

Arizona (-2.5) over ST. LOUIS
Any other week, this would be an obvious trap - Cardinals coming off huge home win over Pittsburgh, due for massive letdown. But for the fact that the Rams are so banged up (Pace, Jackson, now Bulger) and just might be the worst team in the NFL right now. Folks will really start taking 'Zona seriously after it racks up another W this week.

Cardinals 24 Rams 10

Seattle (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
Why this large number? Feels like a setup, but we just can't see Seahawks losing this one by more than 6. In fact, an outright win by Seattle would not be that big of an upset. Stillers need a bounceback win after last week, and we think they'll get it.
Steelers 24 Seahawks 20

INDIANAPOLIS (-10.5) over Tampa Bay
No way the line is this high if Cadiallac and Pettigout were healthy for TB, but Manning and Co. at home are tough to pick against. We're booking for a tight three quarters, followed by Colts pulling away late to cover.

Colts 29 Buccaneers 14

Baltimore (-3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Trent Dilfer starts for Niners. In what should be the ugliest game of the week, look for Ravens to prevail. Condolences to those who are forced to watch.
Ravens 12 49ers 6

San Diego (+1.5) over DENVER
Another team in a must win situation: Norv Turner's Chargers. Normally, trying to get well in the Mile High city would be a tall order, but this Bronco team could very well be 0-4 right now, and have had all kinds of issues stopping the run. So long as Bolts keep ramming LT down the Bronco's throats, they can prevail.....though watching Turner coach so far gives no indication this will occur.
Chargers 24 Broncos 17

GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Chicago
Wow. Just a few weeks ago, this line would have been, at the very least, reversed. Bears are an absolute mess right now, while Pack are the toast of the NFL. Okay, bandwagon, we'll jump on.
Packers 23 Bears 10

MONDAY NIGHT

Dallas (-10.5) over BUFFALO
Bills looked good, and finally grabbed a W last week ( and might have found a new QB in Trent Edwards, but that's a whole 'nother story). That said, Cowboys are real solid right now, and will once again strut their stuff in front of the national TV audience.
Cowboys 27 Bills 13

BEST BETS: Patriots, Cardinals, Seahawks

Last week: 9-5

Last 3 weeks: 26-20 (56.5%)

Best Bets: 6-0 (100%)

Season Total: 34-28 (54.8%)

Baseball Playoff Preview

Division Series Edition

Say what you will about baseball, what with the ridiculous salaries, steroid controversy, etc., but you can't say this wasn't a strange year. Bud Selig's dream of parity became clearer in 2007, as there were no 100 win nor 100 loss teams in either league. Also, 7 of the 8 teams playing in the post-season were not doing the same thing last season.

We had several milestones, including Barry's 756th*, Biggio's 3,000th hit, Glavine's 300th win, and the 500th HR from Arod, Thome and Frank Thomas. I would rather not mention it, but we also saw the historic collapse of the New York Mets. There, I said it, now let's move on to the teams that are still playing ball.


National League
Phillies vs. Rockies
It is unfortunate that the two Teams of Destiny have to meet in this round, isn't it? Colorado's unlikely run to this series was just as remarkable as Philly's, no doubt. The wild win over the Padres on Monday seemed appropriate in many ways, and this is clearly a team on a roll.
For all that was made of the Mets implosion, let's not forget that the Phillies had to play lights out baseball as well to get to this spot. They're also afire, which could make this the most entertaining of the four Division Series.
The Pick: Just a hunch, but we've got a feeling the Philadelphia pitching might come back to Earth a bit, at the worst possible time. Expect some slugfests.

Rockies in 5

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Lost amidst all the craziness in the Eastern and Western divisions was the Cubbies - a team which overcame a pretty significant deficit themselves to get to the playoffs for the first time since the immortal gag job of 2003 (can you say Bartman?). The anonymous D-Backs somehow managed to win the West despite scoring less runs than allowed.
The Pick: D-Back kiddie Corps might be too young to feel the playoff pressure, while Cub players must carry the weight of a century of failure. Still, we like the boys from Chicago, at least at this point. Come back in 1/2 and hour and the pick might change, but for now it's...

Cubs in 5

American League

Red Sox vs. Angels
Sox built huge lead, then avoided the meltdown you were secretly expecting (c'mon Sawx fans, admit it, you were waiting for it to happen). Something feels a bit off about this Angel team though. The pitching has been spottier than usual, and the power numbers haven't been there. Boston has been somewhat in cruise control for much of the second half, but can trot out a nasty lineup to go with ace Josh Beckett.
The Pick: Like the Sox here in what could be a short series. Let's give the Angels at least one, making it.. Red Sox in 4.


Yankees vs. Indians
Seems like everyone is of the mindset that Alex Rodriguez needs to have a big series in order for the Yankees to do well. We're more concerned that the bullpen and thin starting staff can hold up against the Tribe's loaded lineup (not to mention the Sabathia-Carmona 1-2 punch on the mound). It makes for a sexier sub-plot, no doubt, to focus on ARod and his recent post-season struggles, but Yankee fans should be more concerned about Roger Clemens in Game 3, and the bullpen beyond Joba Chamberlain and Mo Rivera.
The Pick: ARod does just fine, but the Cleveland pitching makes the difference and leads the Mistake By The Lake to victory. Have fun in Anaheim/Boston/Chicago/San Francisco in '08, Alex!

Indians in 5

NFL Picks - Week 4

D'oh! Technical difficulties (thanks for that single point of failure, AT&T!) prevented the publication of the Week 4 picks in a timely fashion. You'll simply have to trust that the selections were made in advance of kickoff on Sunday, which they were.

Pithy predictive paragraphs have been omitted, since it would be pointless to do so after the fact. That said, here are (were) the picks:

Houston -2/12 over ATLANTA
NY Jets -3/12 over BUFFALO
Baltimore -4 1/2 over CLEVELAND
DALLAS - 12 1/2 over St. Louis
Chicago - 2 1/2 over DETROIT
Oakland +3 1/2 over MIAMI
Green Bay - 2 1/2 over MINNESOTA
CARLOLINA - 2 1/2 over Tampa Bay
Seattle - 1 1/2 over SAN FRANCISCO
ARIZONA +5 1/2 over Pittsburgh
INDIANAPOLIS -9 1/2 over Denver
Kansas City +12 1/2 over SAN DIEGO
NY GIANTS +2 1/2 over Philadelphia

MONDAY NIGHT
New England -7 1/2 over CINCINNATI

BEST BETS: Dallas, Arizona, New England

Last week: 10-6
Overall: 25-23 (52.1%)
Best Bets: 3-0 (100%)

No, We Won't

Jim Caple threw up a column today telling all of us that we'll miss Barry Bonds when he's gone, as he plays his final home game in San Francisco tonight.

Don't think so, Jimmy. It's been a refreshingly Bonds-free time since he broke Hank Aaron's record, save for the info this week about the Giants asking that he not return in 2008. Watching him parade his tired ass around this winter looking for a team will be a sad spectacle, no doubt, but there will be little sympathy. As stated many times, by many people, Bonds is, and has been for quite some time, a jerk, which makes him impossible to root for. Watching him take hacks in 2008, likely as a DH (Detroit? Anaheim? Oakland? Yankees?) will be a non-event, and if he doesn't return, we here at BIMRVM speak for many when we state he will not be missed.

Bye Bye Barry!


Caple (Page 2): You'll miss Bonds

NFL Picks - Week 3

The March Toward Mediocrity continues full steam ahead, after last week’s 7-9. We mentioned the fact last week that at this point there are several teams sitting at 2-0 which cause one to scratch one’s head, and this season is no different. The Lions, Texans, 49ers, Packers and Redskins all fit the bill. Equally surprising are some of the names found on the winless list, however: The Saints and Eagles, two teams which need to get better, now, and put up a number in the W column this week.

Self-congratulations are in order, as we correctly predicted an exact score last week (Chicago 20 Kansas City 10). The New York Times attempted to do this for several years before getting one right. Ha! Take that, Old Grey Lady! Also, new this week will be a “Best Bets” feature, where the three games of which we feel most confident will be noted.

Full of confidence, and ready to surge above the .500 mark, we submit the picks:

San Diego (-4 ½) over GREEN BAY
Surprising Pack getting points at Lambeau? The defense is for real, but will have its hands full against potent Charger attack. Bolts need a big performance here after the debacle in Foxboro Sunday night, and another ugly performance could be the beginning of the finger pointing and “maybe they’re not as good as we thought” columns. Look for LDT to get in gear and pace SD to victory. Norv Turner is still living up to his stellar coaching record, isn’t he?
Chargers 23 Packers 17

Indianapolis (-5 1/2 ) over HOUSTON
Loss of Andre Johnson is huge for host Texans, but Indy survived scare last week and won’t take Houston lightly. The fact that Houston is 2-0 keeps the number down, which makes Colts the smart play, not to mention the revenge factor in play after Colts lost to Texans late last season..
Colts 23 Texans 10

KANSAS CITY (-2 ½) over Minnesota
Chiefs had chances last week in Chicago, but couldn’t convert. Why is it that Herm Edwards’ teams always seem to start slowly? Is it a lack of preparation in training camp (if you saw Hard Knocks, that answer could be self-evident)? Although last year isn’t a perfect gauge, we note that KC was 0-2 then as well, having scored 16 points in two losses, then exploded in Week 3 to the tune of a 41-0 blowout of San Francisco. Vikes offense is in disarray (who, exactly, will be taking the snaps is still up in the air), and going to noisy Arrowhead won’t help. KC looks like a team that will get better as the season moves along, though that won’t necessarily translate to more than 6 wins, they should have enough in the tank to knock off Minny.
Chiefs 19 Vikings 13

NEW ENGLAND (-15 ½) over Buffalo
Potential letdown alert here for Pats. Bills come in struggling on both sides of the ball, and simply can’t match up with explosive Patriots. We can see perhaps a first half struggle which keeps things close, but talented Brady, Moss and Co. will pull away and cover the huge number. Start the “can the Pats go undefeated?” stories on Monday, and be prepared for many interviews with members of the ’72 Dolphins.
Patriots 31 Bills 10

NY JETS (-3 ½) over Miami
Jets showed moxie last week in nearly pulling out victory in Baltimore, while depleted Fins wore down in loss to Dallas. No Zach Thomas hurts Dolphins, while the return of Chad Pennington (with Kellen Clemens threat looming behind), plus a big effort from Thomas Jones, should help the Jets in Jersey.
Jets 24 Dolphins 14

Detroit (+6 ½) over PHILADELPHIA
Iggles are a mess, and playing at home doesn’t seem to help. Every little mistake is magnified, and Donovan “Woe is Me” McNabb juts doesn’t look right. Lions are rejuvenated, and should be able to at least cover this line on the road, if not win outright.
Lions 20 Eagles 17

PITTSBURGH (-8 ½) over San Francisco
Can’t see Steelers letting down against a Niner team that hasn’t looked particularly sharp, despite winning both games. SF QB Alex Smith will be under tons of pressure, and Pittsburgh will have a surprisingly easy time at the Field Named After Ketchup.
Steelers 27 49ers 13

TAMPA BAY (-3 ½) over St. Louis
Somehow we’d forgotten about the magic that is Jeff Garcia. Honestly, this guy is something else – he led basically the same Eagle team currently struggling under Donovan McNabb to 6 wins last year, and now has this Buc team lighting up the scoreboard. Rams minus Orlando Pace are finding it hard to open up decent holes for Stephen Jackson as well as protect Marc Bulger’s blind side. Hearty Buc D will keep the heat on in sunny FLA and move to 2-1.
Buccaneers 30 Rams 16

Jacksonville (+3 ½) over DENVER
Classic sucker bet here, but we’re taking it anyway. Jags can’t possibly seem more discombobulated, but are now entering the “do or die” phase. Broncs have eked out two wins against clearly inferior opponents, and could very easily be 0-2 right now. The less than crisp play will catch up to them this week. As Jack Del Rio coaches for his job.
Jaguars 20 Broncos 17

Cleveland (+3 ½) over OAKLAND
What? Browns, who put up 51 last week, are getting points against the Raiduhs? Seems like another sucker line, but the feeling here is that the resurgent Brownies will put together enough to at the very least keep this one close. Maybe this week Sea Bass Janikowski nails that late FG in one should be an entertaining game.
Raiders 30 Browns 27

SEATTLE (-3 ½) over Cincinnati
Hawks should be 2-0 but for a botched handoff exchange in the opener, while Bengals have been perhaps the most erratic team in the league. That inconsistency will doom them in the Pacific Northwest. Also, as a side note, Chad Johnson? We like you, honestly, but knock it off already.
Seahwaks 31 Bengals 20

Carolina (-3 ½) over ATLANTA
Falcons don’t seem to have it together yet, and now QB Joey Harrington knows the team has no faith in him as they brought in Byron Leftwich this week. Panthers kicking themselves after squandering 14-0 lead last week, and will not suffer similar fate here simply because Atlanta seems incapable of putting that many points on the board right now.
Panthers 24 Falcons 7

WASHINGTON (-4 ½) over NY Giants
‘Skins seem to be the real deal, with QB Jason Campbell improving each week to go along with decent running game. Either way, the extremely porous Giants defense will allow Joe Gibbs’ guys easy passage to the promised land. Quick show of hands: who saw this Washington team starting 3-0? Nobody? Yeah, us neither.
Redskins 34 Giants 17

CHICAGO (-3 ½) over Dallas
Another gut check game for the defending NFC champs. How much longer can they sustain with Rex Grossman running the show? Stellar defense should be able to bottle up Tony Romo and Co., but if the Bear offense doesn’t get it in gear soon it will be a very long year in the Windy City. It might be ugly, but Bears prevail in front of the national TV audience.
Bears 24 Cowboys 9

MONDAY
Tennessee (+4 ½) over NEW ORLEANS
Must win deal for the Saints, no doubt. Titans are a very tough team to blow out, that’s for sure, and should have no trouble keeping this one tight. We still believe in New Orleans, maybe too much, and the hunch is that Drew Brees and Reggie Bush will put up just enough to withstand the inevitable Titan late run.
Saints 23 Titans 21

BEST BETS: Colts, Patriots, Steelers
Last week: 7-9
Season total: 15-17 (46.9%)
Exact Score Total: 1

NFL Picks - Week 2

Not a bad start (8-8) for week one, all things considered. As we said, the first week is always a total crapshoot, so coming out right at 50% isn’t worthy of complaint.

Week 2 features another mixed bag, though some of the lines have jumped pretty high. Resisting the temptation to jump to early conclusions on the basis of one game, we move forward with the following selections:

Houston +6.5 over CAROLINA
Have you ever noticed that every year a team or teams starts out 2-0, and suddenly everyone sits up and says “Whoa, these guys are 2-0?”. Not sure if the Texans can do that, but they should be competitive enough to cover this number.
Carolina 20 Houston 17

Cincinnati -6.5 over CLEVELAND
Remember what we said two paragraphs ago about not jumping to conclusions after one game? This is the exception. The Browns are awful, and the explosive Bengals should take this one going away.
Cincinnati 31 Cleveland 10

JACKSONVILLE -10.5 over Atlanta
Jags smarting after losing to Titans, and Falcs defense won’t be able to slow down Maurice Jones-Drew.
Jacksonville 27 Atlanta 10

NY GIANTS +3.5 over Green Bay
A lot depends on the status of Eli Manning, who looked very comfortable in Big D last week. G-Men defense can’t be much worse, and an extra full week of practice for Michael Strahan should help.
NY Giants 24 Green Bay 14

Buffalo +9.5 over PITTSBURGH
Heavy hearted Bills go into the blast furnace in Steeltown. Still not sold on Pitt just yet, and playing-with-a-purpose Bills should keep this one tight.
Pittsburgh 20 Buffalo 14

San Francisco +3.5 over ST. LOUIS
Niners, who really should stick with those Walsh-era unis [link], were lucky to escape over inept Cards last week. Rams loss of Orlando Pace is a huge blow, and the feeling here is the Niners can win this one outright, in an ugly one.
San Francisco 24 St. Louis 20

New Orleans -3.5 over TAMPA BAY
Vegas obviously knows something we don’t. Saints have had 10 days to stew over blowout loss at Indy, and though this could be a back-to-the-pack year, can’t see them stumbling here.
New Orleans 27 Tampa Bay 10

Indianapolis -7.5 TENNESSEE
Warning signs abound here. Titans always give Indy fits, Colts due for a letdown. Can’t underestimate the value of the extra off days for Indy, even this early. We can see this one being tight but opening up late.
Indianapolis 30 Tennessee 17

ARIZONA +2.5 Seattle
Another wacky line, at least at first glance. Redbirds are always a trendy early season pick, while Hawks are seemingly flying under the radar a bit. Against our better judgement, we’ll go with (gulp) ‘zona…
Arizona 21 Seattle 20

Minnesota +3.5 over DETROIT
This one is actually an interesting matchup. Vikes offense essentially sputtered in Week 1 win, while Lions put up 36 against a decent Raider D. Can the Lions join the ranks of surprising 2-0 teams? Why not?
Detroit 27 Minnesota 24

Dallas -3.5 over MIAMI
Cowboy D has holes, which were exploited last week, but can’t see Dolphins doing the same. Look for Pokes to tighten things up and take care of business in sticky Miami.
Dallas 23 Miami 10

NY Jets +7.5 over BALTIMORE
Just cannot see Ravens being 8 points better than anyone right now. Steve McNair has not looked good for awhile now, and the stellar Baltimore defense should give Jets problems no matter who is behind center. Low scoring games usually mean close games, so we’ll take the Jets.
Baltimore 13 NY Jets 10

Kansas City +12.5 over CHICAGO
Our beloved Chiefs are an apparent mess right now. The O-Line has yet to come together and the receiver corps lost another starter, not to mention they had to cut the rookie kicker. However, Larry Johnson should be more involved this week, and even though Bears shut down LT last week, LJ might be able to pop one or two. Bears offense is a mess with issues at QB (the erratic Rex Grossman) and RB (enigmatic Cedric Benson), so it’s not unlikely each defense could outscore the offenses here.
Chicago 20 Kansas City 10

DENVER -9.5 over Oakland
Doesn’t matter who starts at QB for Oakland, we will not pick against Denver in a home opener. Broncs fortunate to escape Buffalo with a W last week, but will have no need for such theatrics this week.
Denver 31 Oakland 13

San Diego +3.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Pats lose edge with video clampdown (perhaps you’ve heard about that little flare-up?). Too bad that this match-up is being somewhat overshadowed by the video controversy, as it should be the best game of the week. Pats could adopt bunker mentality and ride that all season, but Chargers (despite Norv Turner, who we feel will doom this team at some point this season) have too much firepower on both sides of the ball to not hang tough, while NBC thanks their lucky stars this one dropped in their lap.
New England 30 San Diego 28

PHILADELPHIA -6.5 over Washington
Classic bounceback game for Iggles, who were embarrassed in Green Bay last week. Skins can keep it close, but the play here says Philly will pull away in the second half in front of the rowdy home crowd.
Philadelphia 24 Washginton 14


Last week: 8-8
Season total: 8-8 (50.0%)

NFL - Week 1 Picks

The picks have returned, with one slight change: this year, point spreads are in play. The lines are taken from the ESPN Pigskin Pick'em, as I have joined the Bill Simmons group. Whee!

Since Week One is a total crapshoot anyway, I have forgone the capsule summaries for each game. Oh, and I'm already 0-1 thanks to the miserable performance by the Saints on Thursday. Thanks guys.

The Week One selections (home team in CAPS):

THURSDAY
New Orleans (+6/2) over INDIANAPOLIS

SUNDAY
BUFFALO (+3 1/2) over Denver
Pittsburgh (-3/12) over CLEVELAND
Philadelphia (-2 1/2) over GREEN BAY
Kansas City (+1 1/2) over HOUSTON
Tennessee (+5/12) over JACKSONVILLE
Atlanta (+2 1/2) over MINNESOTA
New England (-5 1/2) over N.Y. JETS
ST. LOUIS (-1 1/2) over Carolina
WASHINGTON (-3 1/2) over Miami
OAKLAND (-2 1/2) over Detroit
Chicago (+5 1/2) over SAN DIEGO
SEATTLE (-6 1/2) over Tampa Bay
DALLAS (-3 1/2) over N.Y. Giants

MONDAY
CINCINNATI (-3 1/2) over Baltimore
Arizona (+3 1/2) over SAN FRANCISCO